The Uncommonsense Blog Three Broad Recoveries for 2009

I cannot remember a time as an investor or writer except perhaps the late 70's and early 80's when pessimism was at such a rampant high. Over the last two years the media has created a virtual pschological cess pool of doom, gloom, and Armageddon like prophecies, most of which have been self fulfilling. I actually don't see it the same way that they do nor should you.

The vast majority of media people are liberal Democrats who are much more interested in criticizing the world that enables them to write the way they do rather than improve it. It's much easier to complain than contribute and takes a lower IQ and reduced innovation level. Their own "profession" is being disintermediated by every means of electronic media coming on line. We are all journalists now and the old line doesn't like it all. Facebook is more important going forward than the New York Times and only the editors there don't understand that.

Not withstanding what has happened in the past year economically, here's what I see that are broad sea changes for 2009. I think there are fortunes wrapped up inside these trends. First of all, here's what is not going to happen:

1. Barack's "tax the rich" is DOA in Congress. He will begin to look more and more like Bill Clinton in his second term than Barack in his first. All Liberals become moderate Republicans halfway through their term if they want anything to get done. The biggest spending stimulus for the economy would be to keep gasoline prices low and lower. Each 10 cent decrease in a gallon of gas translates into 10 billion of addtional consumer money. Gas has dropped 50% in cost over the last 6 months while the cost of crude has dropped 70%. Any alternative energy policy is doomed until Oil gets above $150 a barrel. Put a windmill on your desk, but don't invest in one yet. Same thing for yak fueled hybrids.

2. The AutoMakers Succeed- I'm watching the conversion of GMAC to bank holding company and wondering how that isn't another constructive guarantee for a dead industry.. The same employee pricing that got them in trouble post 9/11 is going to doom them after current inventory is cleared. Lowering the credit score to 640 only creates the subprime auto scam. It's over for these morons. The only thing the Democrats have done is buy Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois for 2012 and keep the unions on life support..

3. Housing: We will sell off or write off the rest of housing by mid 2009. Lenders will have to start lending again because they can't make their margins with account fees and car loans. There will be fewer builders on a big scale, more niche builders, and more innovative housing and financing than we've ever thought of. See Brad Pitt in New Orleans. My business partners and I are buying every single piece of property we can get our hands on, financing them on a variety of measures, and understanding that all we have to do is buy lower than what they sold for and the pure replacment cost in the next few years will lock in the profit. Five Houses paid off over ten years replaces your corporate pension plan and your savings in terms of cash flow. If you don't believe that things will increase in value and opportunity will grow in the country in the years ahead, why are you worried about what your IRA balance is?. Just shoot yourself, leave the money to American PetCross, (www.americanpetcross.com) and put us all out of your misery.

4. Resurgence of Wall Street Power- Regular readers of this column know that I think Mary Shapiro and Chris Cox are the two most incompetent and dangerous and disconnected individuals to hit the financial services industry. The trend is toward consolidation of supervision, capital markets, product design and placement around 10 to15 of the largest banks. The trend here is being driven by people like Gordon Brown, the IMF, and WMF and of course, France to put global capital under the control of a few elite governments and even more arrogant individuals. The net result for the consumer will be less choice, lower fees, lower service, and less opportunities to really move ahead with government guaranteed portfolios. Look for salaried advisors, selling model portfolios, on toll free lines, offering you 4% guarantees while they pick up 1% internal fees for telling you what time it is with your own watch.

1. Take total accountability and responsibility for your job, future, retirement, wealth, and health. Stop paying people who don't perform in your business or your life. Start a company, buy one, hire a private physician, get out of the entitlement box. It is you and only you who is looking out for you. There is no one coming for you and if they do, they will have their hand out and an unemployed relative with them.

2.Read the papers and then write on the Papers and then throw them away. What is going on in the papers is what is going on in the papers. Design a bigger future for yourself than what some 23 yr old journalist who doesn't have any money and hates you for what you have is writing about. Here's what to read: WSJ, NYT, USA Today, Your local Paper, Financial times. Look on the web at MSN, CNN, ABC, etc. I promise you it takes no more than 11 minutes to scan all of those and you will get more than enough direction for the day.

3. Put together your own team of advisors and counselors in the areas that matter. Barack's healthcare, public retirement strategies, and employment structures will be geared to the vast unwashed millions Go find the to 20% of advisors in all areas of the country and make them part of your team. Build a community of collaboration and connection that has at least 40% of its membership under the age of 40 . They are excited about the future and don't discuss their medicines or friends who died first thing in the morning.

Finally, stop being afraid. What the vast majority of American's don't understand is that we almost melted down completely 6 months ago. It wouldn't have mattered if you had a 720 credit score or 7, there wasn't any money. Watch how the rules change by people who make them and adjust accordingly. The rule here is that there really aren't any rules going forward. Not anarchy talk, just what's going on. For example, one day you have to have a credit score of 700 to buy a car and the next day it's 640. Who made that up? The people who aren't selling cars and the government who wants them to. It's just made up stuff. Get over it. Richard Branson at Virgin Money has the new banking structure figured out. It's people lending to people. It doesn't finance corporate takeovers but it finances cars, and houses, and college education or welding school. By pass the banks going forward except maybe the small ones in Missouri and other places who have a vested stake in you and the community. The difference between a corner call girl and and the Emperor's Club merchandise is simply packaging. The banks have known this for years. that's why they have to pretend to look like churches to get people to come in.

Just attack life and quit being on the defensive. Most of all understand the only real failure in life is not playing as hard as you could have.

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